Doing Advance Work

News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Trump leads by one in Sept. 22-24, 2016 Morning Consult nationwide poll, 39T, 38H, 2% error margin

Trump 39
Hillary 38
Johson 9
Stein 4 

Sept. 22-24, 2016, 1712 likely voters nationwide, online poll, 2% error margin. 53% female, 47% male, 35D, 31R, 34 Ind., 81 white, 13 black, 9 Hispanic, 6 other. In 2012: Voted for Obama 42, Romney 31, Didn't vote 21. In 2014: Voted Dem. 36, Voted Repub. 32, Didn't vote 28. toplines and crosstabs. This poll has no breakdowns on the above Trump 39-Hillary 38 Likely Voter results which are only mentioned once at the bottom of p. 6 in "toplines." The poll is mainly concerned with tv debates.

73% say country is on wrong track 

9/25/16, "Trump Edges Above Clinton Ahead of First Debate," Morning Consult, Fawn Johnson 

"In a nationwide poll of 1,712 likely voters taken Sept. 22 through Sept. 24, 39 percent of respondents chose Trump, while while Clinton was the choice for 38 percent. The difference between the two candidates is within the margin of error. The other candidates in the race continue to trail behind the leaders, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4 percent; 10 percent of respondents say they don’t know or have no opinion."


Comment: As I mentioned above, this poll is mainly concerned with tv debates. It contains no breakdowns of the 39 Trump 38 Hillary Likely Voter results (such as independent voters). The totals are only mentioned at the end of p. 6 in "toplines."



Trump and Hillary statistically tied in Pennsylvania Muhlenberg College Morning Call poll, H40, T38, 5 point error margin, Sept. 19-23, 2016

Trump 38

2016 Muhlenberg College/Morning Call late September election survey of Pennsylvania voters 

"On the eve of the first presidential debate, a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows a narrow gap between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump amid rising support for Trump within his own party....
In a four-way matchup, Clinton leads by 2 points, at 40 percent to Trump's 38 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson dropped to 8 percent — down from 14 percent a week ago — and Green Party nominee Jill Stein went from 5 to 3 percent.

Pennsylvania's competitive U.S. Senate race also shifted in the GOP's favor, with Republican Sen. Pat Toomey on top by 1 point, 41 percent to 40 percent for Democratic challenger Katie McGinty.

Both races are within the survey's margin of error, plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The latest survey, of 486 likely general election voters, was conducted Sept. 19-23, amid reports of bombs exploding in New York and New Jersey, as well as civil unrest in North Carolina after a black man was shot and killed by a [black] police officer. Trump discussed those events during his appearances last week.

Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the state poll, said the week's events likely contributed to the shifts in support among Republicans and among those in an age bracket that includes parents, who may be swayed by debate over public safety.

"Issues like terrorism and riots play to Donald Trump's narrative," Borick said."...

[Ed. note: Since "terrorism and riots" are continually happening, why aren't they everyone's "narrative?"]

(continuing): "The results also suggest some Republicans who had been uncertain about the party's controversial nominee are showing greater support for Trump.

"Partisans coming home to their nominee is an expected part of any campaign as you get into the closing days," said Chris Nicholas, a GOP consultant based in Harrisburg. "What's notable here is the very large shift and we're not close to the final days."

A demographic analysis showed a double-digit jump in Trump's support among Republicans after Trump underperformed with that group previously. This week, 85 percent of likely GOP voters said they'd choose him over Clinton, compared with 71 percent in the prior survey.

While Johnson had appeared to peel away some Republicans from Trump, that effect diminished this week, Borick said. Johnson fell by 6 points in the four-way matchup, while Trump gained by the same figure.

In traditionally Republican regions outside the southeast and southwest, Trump gained 9 points and Clinton dropped by 6 points. He also gained among voters between 30 and 49 years old; Trump rose by 10 percentage points to tie with Clinton at 42 percent.

The close margin reflects the emphasis both campaign have placed on Pennsylvania with increasingly frequent visits from the nominees and their surrogates. This week, Vice President Joe Biden and First Lady Michelle Obama are expected to campaign in Philadelphia on behalf of Clinton, while vice presidential nominee Mike Pence is scheduled to appear in York....

In the U.S. Senate race, which will help determine whether Republicans maintain control of the legislative chamber, Toomey's prospects rose alongside Trump's.

McGinty, who previously served as an environmental aide in state and federal administrations, saw her support drop by 3 points compared with the last survey, while Toomey's rose by the same tally.

Two in 10 voters, however, remain undecided as the Senate candidates and outside groups continue to flood state airwaves with attack ads....

Clinton still leads Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but only by a 3-point margin, 44 percent to 41 percent. Those results showed Clinton's support dropping and Trump's gaining compared with a Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll a week earlier, which showed Clinton at 47 percent and Trump at 38 percent."...


Mark Cuban says: "If I see a black kid in a hoodie...I'm walking to the other side of the street"

posted 9/24/16, Mark Cuban video: "If I see a black kid in a hoodie..I'm walking to the other side of the street." via Real Vinnie James Twitter


Not Hispanic after all, mass murderer at mall in Washington State is an immigrant from Turkey granted permanent US residency by US geniuses and is a supporter of Hillary Clinton. After a past violent assault against his stepfather, the stepfather urged a judge to allow Cetin to retain his privilege to own a gun

Arcan Cetin twitter

Jan. 18, 2015, "We win I vote for Hillary Clinton"

9/25/16, "Washington state mall shooting: FBI 'not ruling out terrorism' as Turkish man arrested over five killed in Macy's," UK Telegraph, David Millward, Harriet Alexander

Arcan Cetin, epa photo
"A 20-year-old Turkish man is expected to appear in court on Monday on charges of killing five people at a Macy’s department store in Washington state, as the FBI said they were not ruling out an act of terrorism.
Arcan Cetin from Oak Harbor, Washington, offered no resistance when he was arrested on Saturday night, saying nothing...police said.

On Friday night he had entered a branch of Macy’s at the Cascade Mall in Burlington, just over 65 miles north of Seattle, and opened fire at the make-up counter. He killed four women, aged 16 to 95, instantly. A fifth victim, a man who was airlifted away from the scene, died later.

Cetin had a violent past, had been arrested for drunk driving and was recommended by a judge not to be allowed to own a firearm. Skagit County court records show three domestic-violence assault charges against Cetin, with the victim identified as his stepfather.

Cetin was told by an Island County district court judge on December 29 that he was not to possess a firearm, but the stepfather urged the judge not to impose a no-contact order, which would require him to surrender his gun -saying his stepson was "going through a hard time".

Cetin’s social media postings gave little hint of extremist tendencies, with his Twitter feed musing over Miley Cyrus, Turkish food, and the computer game Halo....

The previous month he had tweeted: “We win I vote for Hillary Clinton” – his only political reference....

Marty Baldwin told The Seattle Times he allowed the suspected gunman, who was homeless at the time, to move in with him and his wife.

But Mr Baldwin kicked him out a few months later after learning the younger man was using and selling drugs, he said.

Mr Baldwin said he called 911 on Friday night, after recognising the man he knew as “Frankie” on TV.

Police on Saturday were unable to confirm reports he had yelled a woman’s name before opening fire.

It was unclear whether he knew his victims - Sarai Lara, 16, a cancer survivor and high school sophomore; Belinda Galde, 64, and her mother, 95-year-old Beatrice Dotson, and Shyla Martin, a 52-year-old Macy's makeup counter employee.

Chuck Eagan, a Boeing maintenance worker, was also killed - shot while helping his wife flee the store.

Following the shooting Cetin was seen walking to a nearby interstate."...


9/25/16, "Mall shooting suspect was 'zombie-like' when arrested, officials say," Fox News

""Mount Vernon Police Lt. Chris Cammock said Cetin had immigrated to the U.S. from Turkey and was a "legal permanent resident." It was not immediately clear when Cetin came to the U.S.

Hawley said Cetin had been arrested for simple assault last year, but provided no further details on the case. The Seattle Times reported that Cetin faced three domestic violence assault charges in both Burlington and Island County, with the victim identified as Cetin's stepfather. The newspaper reports Cetin also was arrested for drunken driving.

Court records show Cetin was told by a judge on Dec. 29 that he was not to possess a firearm, the newspaper reported. 

However, the stepfather urged the judge not to impose a no-contact order, saying his stepson was "going through a hard time."


Added: Since the media insists on blaming Hispanics for Muslim mass murder and terrorism, here's a new map for them:


Trump and Hillary in statistical tie nationwide, 46H-44T with 4.5 error margin, ABC News Washington Post poll, Sept. 19-22, 2016, 651 likely voters nationwide, 37D, 27R, 28 Ind. Trump now +5 among independent voters

Trump 44
Hillary 46
Johnson 5
Stein 1

Independent voters
Trump 43
Hillary 38
Johnson 10
Stein 2

Sept. 19-22, 2015, 4.5 error margin, 37D, 27R, 28 Ind., land line and cell phone, 651 likely voters nationwide

9/25/16, "Clinton-Trump Race Narrows on the Doorstep of the Debates (POLL)," ABC News, Gary Langer

Subhead, "Fundamentals"

"Among other groups, independents also may prove key; their preference was +2 points for Clinton a few weeks ago vs. +5 for Trump in this poll. While that’s within the margin of error, independents customarily are more movable than other likely voters, given that they’re less rooted in partisan predispositions. They haven’t been swing voters (i.e., supporting the winner) in the last two elections -- but where they land in six weeks may matter."


"This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 19-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including 651 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample, and 4.5 points for likely voters. Partisan divisions are 33-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 37-27-28 among likely voters. 

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y. See details on the survey’s methodology here....


Trump has 4.1 lead over Hillary nationally in Sept. 24, 2016 USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak poll

Trump 46.4
Hillary 42.3

9/25/16, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll 

"About the Survey✝"

"The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology."


Trump's 'America First' Energy Plan will lift restrictions on American energy to allow many more jobs, higher wages, and economic activity to pour into communities. He'll encourage the great potential of US shale oil and gas, end the war on coal, open more oil and gas production on federal lands and off shore, and refocus the EPA on its core mission of ensuring clean air, and clean, safe drinking water for all Americans-9/22/16, in Pittsburgh, Pa.

9/22/16, "Donald Trump Details ‘America-First’ Energy Plan," Breitbart, Alex Swoyer

"Donald Trump detailed his energy plan, which he previously mentioned during his speech on the economy at the Detroit Economic Club in August, on Thursday in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 

I am going to lift the restrictions on American energy, and allow this wealth to pour into our communities– including right here in Pennsylvania,” Trump stated while speaking to more than 1,000 gas industry experts.

Citing the Institute for Energy Research, Trump suggested that lifting energy restrictions such as shale production would produce more than 500,000 new jobs every year and raise the GDP by more than $100 billion each year.

He also says lifting the restrictions would raise wages over the next seven years, increase tax revenues, and generate economic activity.

Trump promised to unlock “shale oil and gas, and the energy technologies of both today and tomorrow.”

He continued:
We have just begun, as a nation, to recognize our economic advantage that is made possible by shale energy. The Shale Energy Revolution will unleash massive wealth for American workers and families.
He presented an “America-First” energy plan by opening oil and gas production on federal lands and off shore. He said he would revoke policies that restrict innovative technologies. 

The Republican nominee suggested his “energy revolution” would create an increased demand for steel production as well. 

Speaking near coal country, Trump also promised to end the war on coal. 

I will rescind the coal mining lease moratorium, the excessive Interior Department stream rule, and conduct a top-down review of all anti-coal regulations issued by the Obama Administration,” he vowed. 

Trump also said he would eliminate the “Waters of the US” rule “and scrap the $5 trillion dollar Obama-Clinton Climate Action Plan and the Clean Power Plan – these unilateral plans will increase monthly electric bills by double-digits without any measurable improvement in climate.” 

I will refocus the EPA on its core mission of ensuring clean air, and clean, safe drinking water for all Americans,” he explained. 

“My environmental agenda will be guided by true specialists in conservation, not those with radical political agendas,” Trump concluded. “It will be a future of conservation, of prosperity, and of great success.”



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