Doing Advance Work

News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Brexit leader Nigel Farage at Trump rally in Jackson, Mississippi brings message of hope and optimism: Ordinary people can 'overcome the big banks and the multinationals.' Global 'experts' said Brexit would lose. David Cameron-now former UK Prime Minister-said it might bring World War III-August 24, 2016 at Trump rally in Jackson, Mississippi

8/24/16, "Nigel Farage at Trump Rally: “America, You’d Better Get Your Walking Boots On” (video)," tcth, sundance  

"Speaking to a boisterous crowd of over 10,000 supporters in Jackson Mississippi, candidate Donald Trump introduced Nigel Farage the leader of the U.K. Independence party– who led a campaign culminating a successful exit of Great Britain from the corruptocrats and corporatist elites within the European Union."...



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Mr. Farage comes to us from the United Kingdom "with a message of hope and a message of optimism." (:48) To win Brexit, they had to beat the same people in England we have to beat in the US: big banks and multinationals. If ordinary people are prepared to stand and fight,  

(1:02) "we can overcome the big banks, we can overcome the multinationals...And we did it. We made June the 23rd our Independence Day, when we smashed the Establishment. (crowd cheers) Everybody said we'd lose. And what did we see, we saw "experts" from all over the world...We saw the International Monetary Fund, we saw Moody's, we saw Standard and Poors....(2:14) And David Cameron--THEN our Prime Minister, but no longer told us, we might even get World War III. And we saw the commentariet and we saw the polling industry doing everything they could to demoralize our campaign. On the day of the vote itself, that morning, they put us ten...points...behind. And actually, they were all wrong."...(2:41)

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Among tcth comments, a few more quotes from Mr. Farage tonight, 8/24/16, at Trump's rally in Mississippi:

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"wyntre says:

Farage:

“You can beat the pollsters, the commentators and Washington.

We had our own people’s army of ordinary citizens who convinced and inspired people to vote for change.
 
If you want change you better put your walking boots on.

Anything is possible if enough decent people are willing to stand up against the establishment.”"...
.......
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"wyntre says:

"Farage:

“The polls said we (Brexit) would lose, they told us our economy would fall off the cliff, they said we might get WW3.


The proletariat and the polling industry did everything they could to demoralize us.

The polls were wrong. We reached people hurt by globalism. We reached people who had never voted before but they thought they could get back their borders and their pride.

We were visited by One Barack Obama. (Crowd BOOOOOOOS very loudly)

He talked down to us. He talked to us like we were nothing and told us to vote REMAIN.”"..

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Trump ahead by 7 points in Arizona, CNN ORC poll, August 18-23, 2016. Among independent Arizona voters, the largest group polled, Trump leads by 15 points

Trump 45
Hillary 38
Johnson 12
Stein 4

p. 20, Independent voters (a larger group than either R or D, p. 7)
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Trump 43
Hillary 28
Johnson 18 

8/24/16, "Arizona," CNN ORC poll

August 18-23, 2016, 809 likely Arizona voters, live interviews, 60% landlines, 40% cell phones, 3.5% error margin. Among likely voters, self described 218 D, 312 Ind., 279 R (p. 7)
 


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Trump strong support among Florida Latino voters helps him edge Hillary 43-41 in Florida Atlantic University poll, Aug. 19-22, 2016. 40% of Florida Latino voters choose Trump v 50% for Hillary. Among independent voters Trump leads Hillary by 21 points, 47-26

Trump 43
Hillary 41
Johnson 8
Stein-not mentioned
Undecided 5

Independent voters
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Trump 47
Hillary 26

Aug. 19-22, 2016, 1200 registered Florida voters, 2.7 error margin. Trump voters by race: White 49%, Hispanic 40%, Black 20%. Hillary voters by race: White 33%, Hispanic 50%, Black 68%. Male voters: Trump 46, Hillary 36. Female voters: Hillary 45, Trump 41. In core 35-54 age group Trump leads by 23 points, 53 to 30. Methodology not stated, no link to poll.

8/24/16, "FAU Poll Finds Trump Edging Out Clinton in Florida," Florida Atlantic University

"Trump leads among white voters 49 to 33 percent, but trails with African Americans 68 to 20 percent, as well as Hispanics 50 to 40 percent.... 

"“The race between Clinton and Trump among Hispanics in Florida is closer than it is nationally, said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI. “Some of that is probably the Cuban vote. Trump’s support among Latinos in Florida is helping him stay competitive.”...

Independents are voting for Trump by a wide margin of 47 percent to 26... 

Trump leads among 35- to 54-year-old voters 53 to 30 percent."...

Hillary only leads in one region of Florida, South Florida. Trump leads in the rest of the state: western, northern, and central:

"Trump’s strongest regional support is in the western part of Florida where he leads 52 to 34 percent, and in the north at 47 to 32 percent. Trump also leads in the central region 44 to 36 percent. Clinton’s support is in South Florida, where she leads 57 to 30 percent. The top issue for voters was dissatisfaction with government at 29 percent, followed by jobs at 18 percent; immigration at 13 percent; and ISIS at 12 percent. The top quality for voters is experience at 27 percent; followed by Commander-in-Chief at 16 percent; trustworthiness at 15 percent; and focus on the economy at 14 percent. Wanting an outsider was mentioned by 12 percent of respondents.... 

The Florida poll was conducted Aug. 19-22. The polling sample was a random selection of registered voters. 

The General election poll consisted of 1,200 registered likely voters with a margin of error of +/-2.7 percent at a 95 percent confidence level."...

For Senate races:

"The Democratic primary consisted of 364 registered Democrat likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/-5.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Republican primary consisted of 327 registered Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/-5.4 percent at a 95 percent confidence level."
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Trump ahead by 7 points in Arizona, CNN ORC poll, August 18-23, 2016. Among independent Arizona voters, the largest group polled, Trump leads by 15 points

Trump 45 
Hillary 38 
Johnson 12 
Stein 4 

p. 20, Independent voters (a larger group than either R or D, p. 7) 

---------  
Trump 43 
Hillary 28 
Johnson 18

 8/24/16, "Arizona," CNN ORC poll 

August 18-23, 2016, 809 likely Arizona voters, live interviews, 60% landlines, 40% cell phones, 3.5% error margin. Among likely voters, self described 218 D, 312 Ind., 279 R (p. 7)


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Added: Below are earlier headline results of "registered voters" reflecting only a 5 point lead for Trump. Later results of more accurate "likely voters" expanded his lead to 7:

 













  8/24/16, Sahil Kapur twitter

 

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Trump and Hillary tied 45-45 in North Carolina, CNN ORC Poll of likely voters, Aug. 18-23, 2016

Trump 45
Hillary 45
Johnson 9

8/24/16, "North Carolina," CNN ORC Poll

Aug. 18-23, 2016, 803 interviews with North Carolina likely voters, error margin 3.5, live interviews on 609 land lines, 300 cell phones in total adult sample. Likely voters described themselves as: 292 D, 270 Ind., 241 R.

p. 3 and p. 18, Likely North Carolina voters, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Trump 45
Hillary 45
Johnson 9

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Comment: Earlier in the day, the CNN ORC North Carolina poll headline was released for "registered voters" with Hillary at 44 and Trump at 43. Later in the day the more accurate "likely voters" numbers were announced and results for a third candidate, Johnson, were included. Among likely voters and including Johnson, Trump and Hillary are tied 45-45, with Johnson at 9. Even if the difference is small, why not use the more accurate "likely voters" numbers in the early headline? It's apparently customary for polling companies to release the less accurate numbers first without including an alert that more accurate numbers will be out within hours. Below is an example of the early 8/24 headline of "registered voters:"   















Sahil Kapur twitter



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Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Trump protester in Austin, Texas, flips the bird to Trump's cheering crowd as he's politely escorted out, 8/23/16-Sahil Kapur, Bloomberg, Texas Tribune







In 2012 Mitt Romney all but ignored Pennsylvania believing he couldn't win there. In 2016, Trump's trade message 'resonates' with Pennsylvania voters per former Pa. Gov. Ed Rendell-NY Times, 7/28/16

In 2012, "Mitt Romney all but ignored Pennsylvania in the expectation that it would vote Democratic."

7/28/16, "Donald Trump Invades Scranton, Hoping to Wrest Pennsylvania From Democrats," NY Times, Trip Gabriel

"He (Trump) is hoping to make deep inroads in a Democratic stronghold with an anti-free trade, America-first message, which across the Rust Belt has energized the blue-collar voters who represent his best prospect of taking up residence in the White House.... 

His larger promise to restore blue-collar jobs by tearing up the North American Free Trade Agreement and other trade deals drew cheers.  

We haven’t gotten a new job in this city for the last 20 years, said Fred Joseph, 66, retired sales manager at a cardboard plant, who was among those who heard Mr. Trump on Wednesday. “If he gets these renegotiations with these NAFTAs, we can start bringing back industries and make televisions, we can make refrigerators. I saw them leave. Why won’t they come back?”   

Mr. Trump’s visit came a day after a former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, Edward G. Rendell, said the Republican nominee's trade message "resonates" with the state's voters. 

I think Trump has a very good chance here, said Mike Fedorka, 60, a former Democratic City Council member in Dickson City, just north of Scranton. 

Unlike 2012, when President Obama and Mitt Romney all but ignored Pennsylvania in the expectation that it would vote Democratic, this year it is a hard-fought battleground, with the Clinton campaign and its allies building a robust field staff and saturating the television airwaves with ads....

To win the 20 electoral votes of Pennsylvania, among the richest of the swing states in the mid-Atlantic and upper Midwest, Mr. Trump must assemble the pieces of a complex puzzle. Democrats have won six straight victories in Pennsylvania in presidential elections....

“People who’ve lived here their entire lives think things aren’t as good as they used to be, so there’s a significant number of people Trump can tap into based on ‘make America great again,’ ” said Michael Allison, a political scientist at the University of Scranton."... 

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Added: From Institute for Energy Research:

"Northeastern Pennsylvania has the nation’s largest reserves of anthracite coal, a coal that burns cleanly with little soot."...In 2012, Pennsylvania was "the only state producing anthracite coal, which has the highest heat value among the coal types."

"Northeastern Pennsylvania has the nation's largest reserves of anthracite coal, a coal that burns cleanly with little soot."... (Most of the state's coal production consists of bituminous coal which is mined in the the western part of the state):

"Pennsylvania was the fourth largest coal-producing state in the nation in 2012, and the only state producing anthracite coal, which has the highest heat value among the coal types. Northeastern Pennsylvania has the nation’s largest reserves of anthracite coal, a coal that burns cleanly with little soot, used primarily as a domestic fuel in either hand-fired stoves or automatic stoker furnaces. While Pennsylvania supplies virtually all of the nation’s anthracite coal, most of the state’s coal production consists of bituminous coal mined in the western part of the state, where several of the nation’s largest underground coal mines are located....

In recent years, a rising proportion of Pennsylvania coal has been exported to other nations. The state is among the nation’s leaders in coal exports.... 

The Keystone State is experiencing record production for natural gas, largely due to a welcoming regulatory environment for hydraulic fracturing technologies that are unlocking vast reserves previously untouched in the Marcellus Shale. Meanwhile, the state’s coal industry has been suffering and the refining sector has felt the strain of federal regulations that are designed to cripple fossil energy producers. The Institute for Energy Research monitors closely the developments in this critical energy state, where unemployment and gasoline prices remain high compared to the rest of the country."...

7/27/16, Scranton, NY Times












Image, Trump rally in Scranton, 7/27/16, credit, Todd Heisler, NY Times




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I'm the daughter of an Eagle Scout (fan of the Brooklyn Dodgers and Mets) and a Beauty Queen.