Six years after BBC reported Arctic would be ice free (so we must pay billions), Arctic ice has record return, 60% growth. Overwhelming scientific consensus in 2013 finds 20 yachts stuck in Arctic ice

9/7/13, “Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year with top scientists warning of global COOLING,” UK Daily Mail, David Rose

*Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012

*BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013

*Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month.

“A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.
 
The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.
 
In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.
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The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter  climate change.
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Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.

THERE WON’T BE ANY ICE AT ALL! HOW THE BBC PREDICTED CHAOS IN 2007

Only six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a ‘conservative’ forecast. Perhaps it was their confidence that led more than 20 yachts to try to sail the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to  the Pacific this summer. As of last week, all these vessels were stuck in the ice, some at the eastern end of the passage in Prince Regent Inlet, others further west at Cape Bathurst.
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Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable  all summer.
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The BBC’s 2007 report quoted scientist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, who based his views on super-computer models and the fact that ‘we use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice’. 
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He was confident his results were ‘much more realistic’ than other projections, which ‘underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice’. Also quoted was Cambridge University expert Professor Peter Wadhams. He backed Professor Maslowski, saying his model was ‘more efficient’ than others because it ‘takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice’.
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He added: ‘This is not a cycle; not just a fluctuation. In the end, it will all just melt away quite suddenly.’

The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday’s revelations – which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet – has forced the UN’s climate change body to hold a crisis meeting.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was due in October to start publishing its Fifth Assessment Report – a huge three-volume study issued every six or seven years. It will now hold a pre-summit in Stockholm later this month.

Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance the IPCC are demanding more than 1,500 changes to the report’s ‘summary for policymakers’. They say its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

At the heart of the row lie two questions: the extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels, as well as how much of the warming over the past 150 years – so far, just 0.8C – is down to human greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural variability.

In its draft report, the IPCC says it is ‘95 per cent confident’ that global warming has been caused by humans – up from 90 per cent in 2007.

 

This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: ‘In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It’s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.’

She pointed to long-term cycles  in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and  suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age. 

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, was one of the first to investigate the ocean cycles. He said: ‘We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.






‘The IPCC claims its models show a pause of 15 years can be expected. But that means that after only a very few years more, they will have to admit they are wrong.’

Others are more cautious. Dr Ed Hawkins, of Reading University, drew the graph published by The Mail on Sunday in March showing how far world temperatures have diverged from computer predictions. He admitted the cycles may have caused some of the recorded warming, but insisted that natural variability alone could not explain all of the temperature rise over the past 150 years.
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Nonetheless, the belief that summer Arctic ice is about to disappear remains an IPCC tenet, frequently flung in the face of critics who point to the pause.

Yet there is mounting evidence that Arctic ice levels are cyclical. Data uncovered by climate historians show that there was a massive melt in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by intense re-freezes that ended only in 1979 – the year the IPCC says that shrinking began.

Professor Curry said the ice’s behaviour over the next five years would be crucial, both for understanding the climate and for future policy. ‘Arctic sea ice is the indicator to watch,’ she said.” images from UK Daily Mail. via Free Republic
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A BBC discussion suggests a pause in confiscation of taxpayer dollars for CO2 induced terror that’s not happening. Temperatures have remained flat since 1998 while CO2 has increased globally (though US CO2 emissions have plunged). Billions of taxpayer dollars were diverted based on predictions that didn’t happen which “peer reviewed literature regards as established yet unexplained:“

7/22/13, “Andrew Neil on Ed Davey climate change interview critics,” BBC, Andrew Neil
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Multi-billion dollar “spending decisions, paid for by consumers and taxpayers…might not have been taken (at least to the same degree or with the same haste) if global warming was not quite the imminent threat it has been depicted….The recent standstill in global temperatures is a puzzle. Experts do not know why it is occurring or how long it will last....There is no consensus.
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Extensive peer-reviewed literature regards it as established yet unexplained. It is widely accepted that the main climate models which inform government policy did not predict it.”...(subhead, “Reputable evidence”)
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For many climate scientists the plateau – which may or may not have long-term significance – has come as something of a surprise. 

Recently Nature, which has published extensively on global warming, called it one of climate science’s greatest mysteries.

So it is legitimate to ask if the government takes the pause seriously and if it has any implications for policy ie, if there is a pause in warming, is there a case for the government to pause or slowdown its expensive efforts to decarbonise the economy until the picture becomes clearer?…

We wanted to stick with the metric that most viewers would understand and which has been used most to judge the course of global warming in public debate i.e. surface temperatures, which are central to the science and, for viewers, the principle point of interest.

At the Sunday Politics we are also used to public figures who try to change the metric when the one they’ve put their faith in does not behave as expected. We try not to let that happen.

Moreover, the purpose of the interview was not to question all aspects of climate science, just the one metric that has commanded most attention. Other possible indicators of climate change – ice melt, ocean temperatures and extreme weather events – are a matter of widespread debate in which the science most certainly is not “settled”.
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For example, trends in Arctic ice decline and ocean warming are not necessarily irrefutable evidence of continued global warming, though many climate scientists believe they are indeed caused by global warming.

Others point out that satellite observations began in 1979 and caught a decline in Arctic ice already in progress. So the origin of the decline could be many decades ago, and might not have been started by man (though global warming could now be exacerbating a previous “natural” melting trend).

There is evidence of great variability in sea ice in the Arctic from historical records and old newspaper cuttings from decades ago reporting the disappearance of the ice.

A new paper by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) suggest that Greenland ice sheet melting is related to solar activity and “a considerable fraction of the current withdrawal could be a natural occurrence”….

There is a huge debate in climate science over the relationship between global warming and ocean temperatures. As pointed out above some scientists…believe that global warming is causing the depths of the oceans to heat up and that one day this heat will be released.

This is widely contested and even, by some, dismissed. The data is short-lived and contentious (the “warming” at depths of many hundreds of metres is being measured in hundredths of a degree C). We did not have time to go there in the interview.

We stuck to the advice of Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology and a world authority on global warming, that: “… the best (most mature, highest quality) data set for inferring recent climate change is the surface temperature data record.”…
Our focus was on a global temperature plateau which could be a challenge to the forecasts of climate models which have determined government policy. The plateau could continue for the foreseeable future or melt away as temperatures resume their upward trajectory.”…
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1/18/13,“Climate change: scientists puzzle over halt in global warming,” Der Spiegel, by Axel Bojanowski (translation from German)

“The British Met Office forecast even more recently that the temperature interval could continue at a high level until the end of 2017 – despite the rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Then global warming would pause 20 years.”…”The exact reasons of the temperature standstill since 1998, are not yet understood, says climate researcher Doug Smith of the Met Office.“…















UK Met Office chart via Der Spiegel
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Change in global CO2 US v China, 2005 to 2011, energy related, US EIA (US Energy Dept.), WSJ, April 2013

4/18/13, “Rise in U.S. Gas Production Fuels Unexpected Plunge in Emissions,” WSJ, Russell Gold

“U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions have fallen dramatically in recent years, in large part because the country is making more electricity with natural gas instead of coal.”…
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6/10/13, 2012 US CO2 continues to drop. Chart from IEA report, China continues to rise. (Above chart is thru 2011) :

 

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Comment: Trillions of dollars have been stolen from US taxpayers and given to CO2 terror profiteers over the past 20-30 years in the greatest money-making scam of all time. Real problems were neglected so that millionaires, billionaires, UN parasites, and the UK monarchy could get richer at the expense of the poor and the middle class. CO2 terror has never been more than an idea. Entire industries formed around something that doesn’t exist. A generation of humanity wasted.  A new commodity trading market was created to “trade CO2.” Academia has benefited hugely from the idea of CO2 terror. They took billions of taxpayer dollars for something that doesn’t exist. Things will be different in academia when the CO2 gravy train finally ends. People like George Bush #1 should be in jail for pushing this scam. CO2 terror spending began before him but he enshrined it, enslaved US taxpayers to it, enslaved at least 13 federal agencies to it. At minimum, US CO2 spending must cease immediately. Billionaire CO2 terror profiteers like Bloomberg, Steyer, Soros, Prince Charles, et al.  are obsessed with bullying humanity into committing genocide on itself. They need to get a life or check into a hospital for the criminally insane.

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UN climate official Edenhofer freely admits the global warming movement is about redistribution of wealth:
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11/14/10: “”But one must say clearly: We distribute by climate policy de facto the world’s wealth around. …This has to do with environmental policy… almost nothing.…The climate summit in Cancun end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War.”…

Ottmar Edenhofer



 

 
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